Modeling

Werewolf Variable

Miglautsch Marketing has now created the “Werewolf Variable” (though Jim has aptly called it the “Full Moon Variable”).  Its historical roots are covered below.  So far, it seems to have predictive power and certainly interesting dinner conversation potential.  Read on for a discussion of variables in general… and if your modelers don’t include variables like …

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There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I still remember my first seminar on modeling.  I was shown how, with proper statistical techniques, done by a Ph.D. Statistician, one could find the top 20% of the customers who produced 80% of the profits in a mailing.  Neiman Marcus ran the tests and the graphics were impressive.  However, questions arose in my mind, …

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Read More »